Is Ford strolling to a win?

Why PC leader appears to be well on his way to second straight majority

It was, at first glance, a typical political photo op.

A grinning candidate, surrounded by admirers, shaking hands, and posing for the occasional selfie.

But it was Doug Ford, and this was at a Stelco plant in Hamilton.

Even in the heart of what would traditionally be NDP country, the PC leader has plenty of support. And that, say analysts and pollsters, is a big reason why Ford appears to be well on his way to a second straight majority June 2.

Despite accusations he’s putting highway construction ahead of the environment, despite criticism of COVID’s death toll in this province and despite the resignation of his chief-of-staff Dean French amid a patronage scandal in 2019, Ford’s PCs would win 74 seats if the election were held right now. The NDP would win 29, the Liberals 20 and the Green Party would win one, according to the Signal, a polling aggregator produced for the Star by Vox Pop Labs.

Just why has Ford’s support remained so stubbornly buoyant? And why aren’t the other parties closing the gap? A common touch helps. As does an opposition divided almost evenly.

For conservative strategist Leslie Noble, there’s a bit of déjà vu. As campaign manager for Mike Harris’s 1995 election and 1999 re-election, Noble sees some parallels: Working-class voters backing a PC leader who has faced plenty of loud, angry criticism. And criticism which doesn’t seem to make a dent in the polls.

“Mike was able to make inroads into those communities, because those should be Conservative voters: Work hard, pay your taxes, look after your family. That’s kind of bedrock. People who build things with their hands are people who work hard every day. They don’t ask for favours, they just ask for a fair shake. And that’s very much Doug’s perspective,” Noble said.

“There’s hysteria by the … partisan left I would say, but I don’t think that represents the broader public and to the extent there are any similarities between Doug and Mike, it’s really the opposition to them is based on hysteria and not fact,” Noble said. “Doug is not an elitist, he’s not a litmus test conservative. He’s a guy who wants to make things work for people.”

For union workers like Daniel Wilkes, there’s also a sense Steven Del Duca’s Liberals and Andrea Horwath’s NDP would make life even more unaffordable than it already is.

“The Liberals and NDP just want to keep raising taxes,” said Wilkes, a painter who’s a member of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, one of several construction industry unions that have endorsed the PCs.

Wilkes, who recently had to pay back federal COVID emergency benefits, is also upset at the federal government, especially Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Ford, he said, has empathy for workers that Trudeau doesn’t.

“Justin Trudeau is taking money out of my pocket. Doug Ford is putting money in,” Wilkes said.

That perception of being on the side of ordinary workers is a powerful force that helps Ford cut across traditional party lines, in a way reminiscent of not only Harris, but also former Toronto mayors Rob Ford and Mel Lastman, as well as Liberal ex-prime minister Jean Chrétien, said veteran Conservative strategist Jaime Watt.

“Doug Ford is a politician that is hard for the political establishment to understand. And it’s hard for the political establishment to understand their appeal,” said Watt, who’s also a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. “In the last election, people who had never voted Conservative before voted for Mr. Ford because they thought he understood them. He has an appeal to those particular voters that is similar to what Mike Harris had.”

But Ford has also benefited from the Liberals and NDP not exactly setting the world on fire, Watt added. And some of that is because of self-inflicted tactical woes like an overly complicated campaign message, he argued.

“When Ronald Reagan ran against Jimmy Carter, he said, ‘Are you better off now than you were four years ago? Yes or no?’ And the answer is no. I don’t know why Del Duca is messing around with all these other messages, because I think that might’ve been the vulnerability,” Watt said.

Horwath, too, has struggled to explain to voters just why she deserves to become premier, in her fourth campaign, Watt said.

“I thought that she would be like Rachel Notley in Alberta, or Jack Layton in Ottawa. That’s what I thought. I was dead wrong. That did not happen at all. And her problem is that she hasn’t done anything to make anybody think she’s got anything new on offer than before,” Watt said.

That lack of traction by his opponents — even against each other — has helped Ford stay ahead, said veteran pollster Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research.

“It’s bizarre, because every time you think one of them is going to break out, the next day it sort of reverses. There is no clear, consensus progressive choice,” Maggi said, adding that more than midway through the campaign, there’s usually plenty of daylight between the Liberals and NDP.

“One of these two parties, if you look historically in Ontario, has always done at least 10 points better than the other in the election results. And we haven’t seen a gap at that level,” Maggi said.

In almost every single demographic — aside from people in the skilled trades, and men generally — Maggi said, the Liberals and NDP are neck and neck. And that holds true across the province.

“Every demographic aside from males, and college and trade individuals, have an almost perfect split between the Liberals and NDP that ends up delivering the win to Doug Ford. In every region, sub-region and every demographic,” Maggi said.

And Ford’s support among blue collar workers, particularly men, is so strong that it will almost certainly carry him to another majority, Maggi predicted. Talk about lowering the gasoline tax, and building more highways, appeals to those voters.

“These are the people that drive the pickup trucks, because they can’t get to their job without bringing their tools. So taking a train or taking a bus or getting smaller electric vehicles isn’t an option. They have to drive 70 kilometres to a work site … That’s Ford Nation right there. And it’s not like that demographic doesn’t exist in Toronto,” Maggi said.